Risk is Never Eliminated

I have faced a little bit of criticism over my claims that investing money in the New Orleans levee system maybe wouldn't have worked. Well, now the National Academy of Engineering seems to be insinuating that levees won't work, no matter what we do.

There had been "undue optimism" about the ability of the protection systems to withstand the impact of a storm on the scale of Katrina.

"the risks of inundation and flooding never can be fully eliminated by protective structures, no matter how large or sturdy those structures may be".

So, no matter how much money we contribute to levees or any structure, there is always the potential risk that a natural event will exceed our design. We can only minimize risk to the extent it is economically feasible and set up systems to mitigate the effects when disasters occur. I don't think ASCE or any engineer should be promising that investing in our infrastructure will result in perfect designs or elimination of risk.

Update from Irvington: Pennsy Trail

Construction progress is moving along well. We've had a bit of rain recently, but I think they are making good time so far. Also, here is my most recent post concerning the trail.



Also, there were a few happy news items relating to other portions of the trail. Stimulus and other funds have been allocated to fix up different portions of the trail, further extending its reach and usefulness. Here's the latest press release:

April 2009
Cumberland Receives $2.6 Million for Pennsy Trail: Mark Reynold, Cumberland Town Council President, announced that on April 9 the Town of Cumberland was awarded $2.6 million to complete construction of the town's 3-mile Pennsy Trail. This grant came through the Indianapolis MPO, the 9-county metro area board, with a vote on distribution of federal economic stimulus funds to projects that are "shovel ready", meaning all environmental work done and right-of-way acquired. A groundbreaking ceremony will be held within a few months.

A larger write-up is available in this article from Indy Star about all the associated projects that received stimulus funds in Indiana.

Finally, here is the current status of the trail from the Indiana Trails website.

Update on Icehouse Renovation

You might have noticed I haven't said too much about the icehouse renovation this year. The only reason is that we haven't made any progress. There are a few reasons for this...

1. it's a hell of a time to find a construction loan, esp. for a weird project like this
2. we have been way too successful in our jobs this year, i.e. lots of overtime
   
3. we have been spending our free time working on our other property
   

Basically life has been treating us very well. The bad news is that I don't think we will be able to host any events like we did last year, it is always so fun to open up the place and fill it with art and such. But like any large project you must be able to enjoy the process, and so we are taking advantage of the downtime by really planning what to do with the icehouse.

I imagine we will take another year to let the economy do its thing, then hit the ground running at the end of next winter. I know it makes for a boring blog, but there is always plenty of engineering topics to discuss!

Investment and Deficit Spending

There has been a lot of attention and press given to deficit spending, borrowing money, and taxation recently, especially concerning infrastructure investment. Generally, you hear from two camps:

1. people who feel that government should only spend money when they have a surplus
2. people who feel that government must spend money during an economic recession

The first theory follows the logic that since the United States is a representative democracy, we are the government. Obviously, you don't want Uncle Sam signing notes in your name and then using the funds to bet on lame get-rich-quick schemes. Deficit spending might be the worst thing to do. Therefore the correct thing to do is cut all spending so we can manage the budget and not overextend ourselves.

The second theory contends that to prevent a recession from becoming a depression the federal government must continue to spend, and indeed spend even more. As long as money is flowing and jobs are created, then the government will act to stabilize and grow the economy. So we can dispense with any concern for utility and, as Keynes suggested, bury money in jars underground and watch a thriving money mining operation employ everyone. Sounds good, right?

Of course, both of these approaches ignore common sense. If the federal government is entirely elastic, swelling and contracting in step with the economy then it will just amplify the boom/bust cycles. On the other hand, borrowing money to reduce taxes or purchasing military toys is plain stupid. There is no free lunch, after all.

In my opinion, the government has two roles to play in the economy:

1. Providing a stable economic environment that is fair and certain
   
2. Finding the best way to meet the needs of the citizenry
   

Notice there is no requirement to tax or spend minimally, only wisely.

So if you were the mayor of a hypothetical SimCity, what would you consider "wise"? Tax rebates to everyone? Returning 100% of taxes would not generate additional revenue, no matter what those silly economic multiplier studies would have you believe. How about establishing new agencies and programs with huge budgets and paying people much higher salaries than their services are worth? It's not much different than the first option, actually. Here's an article by the New York Times on deficit spending that has some ideas about how to do it right, and how to do it wrong:

In 1929, President Herbert Hoover thought that the best response to a collapsing economy was to balance the federal budget. With incomes and tax receipts falling sharply, that meant cutting federal spending. But as almost all economists now recognize, President Hoover was profoundly mistaken.

If we simply use the money to buy bigger houses and cars, deficits make us unambiguously worse off in the long run. That’s why the explosive increase in the national debt during the Bush administration was a grave misstep.

Instead of band-aid solutions in times of crisis, government must create mechanisms for individuals to produce value. Infrastructure investment is a great way to do this. For example, lowering the costs for people to do business can be much more effective than lowering taxes, because you are providing jobs during the infrastructure work and maintaining a competitive advantage for future work. Highways, Canals, and Railroads have always been an expensive investment, but a lot of times they can "grow the economy" and so the money borrowed to do the work pays off quite handsomely. Our entire society can benefit.

We have a great opportunity in this country right now; construction costs and the cost of borrowing money are at historical lows. Check out this Wall Street Journal article on lowered construction costs. If you have checked the return on federal bonds recently, you'll see the yield is almost nil (and has been negative at times). People are so worried about company stock values they are willing to make almost nothing on a guaranteed investment, and at times have been willing to pay the US govt to hold their money. That's rare, eh?

In any case, if people all over the world are ready to give the US a very inexpensive loan, construction costs are down, and we need to remake the entire US economy operate more efficiently with lower cost input, then I say we take advantage of our good fortune! The time is right. Let's build a competitive high speed rail system. Let's expand our walkable neighborhoods. Let's invest in urban communities that have been sliced apart by Interstate highways. Let's reconfigure our entire energy grid to take advantage of renewable opportunities. And let's get started today!

But please, ASCE, no "sky is falling" nonsense...

Post-Quake Analysis: Central Italy

Last Monday, April 6th, a 6.3 Magnitude earthquake struck central Italy. Centered near L'Aquila, Italy, the seismic event was not particularly strong nor intense, but it has caused a large amount of damage.

Here is the USGS Quakemap for the event. Check out my related posts (label = seismic) if you need help reading it.

A week later, it appears that there will be about 300 casualties due to the earthquake and the aftershocks. Central Italy is famous for its Medieval, Renaissance, and Roman structures, so there is a huge stock of buildings that are susceptible to seismic events. Unfortunately, it turns out that some of the worst performing structures have been built in modern times under the jurisdiction of codes requiring seismic resistance.

The post-quake analysis seems to indicate poor construction quality and lax oversight from building inspectors set this seismic time-bomb in motion. The general public of central Italy has been told (just like the rest of us) for several decades that modern structures are different, they will be safer when disaster strikes. However, something in the system broke down and the reality of the situation did not meet the promises.

This could happen anywhere in the world. Political corruption, designer negligence, or ignorance of builders are commonplace. Each one alone is a huge problem, so faced with three issues beyond their control individuals often feel that they can do nothing to help.

I don't think we can ever remove risk from our structures entirely, but the three problems discussed above can be addressed by the general public. It all comes down to accountability. We must hold our politicians accountable in the following ways:

1. Only elect politicians who have proven themselves capable of understanding technical and scientific issues. Do not vote for someone who has an anti-scientific or anti-intellectual agenda. Someone who makes up their mind before they understand the issue will not be able to solve any problems.
   
2. Enforce transparency and freedom of information rights. This will prevent graft and corruption in the securing of construction contracts and inspection of projects.
3. Do not allow politicians to pardon or protect engineers, architects, builders, or contractors after a major disaster, beyond what is allowed by the laws currently in place. Statements like "we need to look to the future, not the past" or other broad statements absolving those responsible of criminal misconduct will only perpetuate the problem.
   

Italy is beginning the process of holding people accountable. People there are angry and looking for answers. A NY Times article discusses an Italian official who claimed that such a light seismic event would not have caused any deaths in California. Another story by BBC discusses the strange case of the San Salvatore hospital, built in 2000, which suffered a partial collapse during the earthquake. This is unthinkable in a place like California, or most of the countries where earthquakes are a way of life. And finally, a BBC story about beginning the process of investigation.

I'm not saying we should be on a witchhunt whenever a building collapses, but when hundreds of people die due to an expected event then we need to investigate why this is happening. If there is no clear way to attribute accountability then we need to figure out a better system. Engineers and architects are signing off on their designs, I am sure those will be reviewed. Someone needs to be signing off on the finished building, someone who will be damn sure the designs are followed through.

Update from Irvington - Streetscape & Other news

The Irvington Streetscape committee met its fundraising goals for full Federal funding (see old post here), so hopefully work will begin soon. They are still short of their overall goals so that incidental costs and contingency budgets will be covered, so don't think it's all over just yet. In the meantime, I put a photograph of the board at the corner of Audubon & Washington showing the fundraising progress and a plan view of the planted medians, crosswalks, and sidewalk improvements that are planned.





I apologize for the poor photo qualities. The sun glare was impossible to work against.

The streetscape is just one of the efforts underway to help improve the neighborhood. If you are interested in the overall strategic vision of the neighborhood, I recommend you delve into the neighborhood plan (published 2006) hosted here. It's a big document (22MB / 147 pgs), but there is no better collection of information about Irvington.


Also, I wanted to thank the Irvingtonians (esp. Irvington Terrace Crimewatch) and Keep Indianapolis Beautiful volunteers who planted the cloverleaf at the intersection of Shadeland and Washington Street. This interchange has such an interesting history. I'll look for a write-up in the media about the event to link to. Word has it that 160 volunteers showed up. Way to show support and committment to the neighborhood, everyone!

Here's what the first leaf planting looks like from the exit ramp:



Update 2009-04-08:
The Irvington Development Organization put an article about the cloverleaf planting in their monthly newsletter. Check it out for the background info on the oldest cloverleaf in the city as well as some great photos of the planting event.

Update from Irvington - Unsung Indy

Unsung Indy has released a few pieces of marketing in the neighborhood, I captured a few.

Here's a sidewalk poster type thing next to library

Full banner on side of Irvington Lodge

The big banner is pretty awesome looking, don't you think? It would be nice if we had something similar from the other direction too, but nothing really stood out like this building elevation. I haven't seen anything on the sides of buses yet, but that should also happen sometime. Keep your eyes open.

Update: 2009-04-08
I have a few updates for the Unsung Indy category. I received an "IRV" sticker earlier this week, put it on my car. My wife got one too. They should be available for free at some Irvington businesses. If you are in a different neighborhood being served by the Unsung Indy campaign you should try to find one in your local shops, too.


Also, the Irvington Development Organization (IDO) put a mention of the event in their monthly newsletter. Read it for additional background info, or to investigate doing something similar for your own group.

Update from Irvington - New York & Michigan Bike Lanes

The city of Indianapolis has installed bike lanes running from Irvington (Ellenberger Park) to downtown along New York and Michigan Streets. I took some photos of how they have this arranged. Essentially, the bike lanes follow the one-way street pattern and are inside the street parking strip.



Here is a flyer produced by the city and distributed to the neighborhoods near the bike lanes:


I'm stoked about them finishing this, and can't wait to ride downtown soon to have a pint of beer on Mass Ave. I think the mayor is organizing a ride soon (Mayor's Bike Ride - May 16th), but he probably has things to do that would cut into my relaxing ride. Of course, this is going to be a very popular place on Bike to Work day - May 15th. If only I worked downtown...

Updates from Irvington - Pennsy Trail

There has been a lot of work going in Irvington in the past year or so. I've managed to photograph some of it, figured I would post here to show people that things are progressing along just fine. First on the list is the Pennsy trail.

The Pennsy trail (see original post here) is under construction, I took some construction photos during the nice weather this past week. This phase of construction will link Arlington to Shortridge along the old Pennsylvania railroad line.




Looks like they are stripping the original tracks down a significant amount and re-building the roadway. Should be very good quality and long lasting pathway. Judging from how deep my footprints went, they need to add and compact a bit more soil before they are done.



I was very happy to be able to get to the old rail bridge across Shadeland. This bridge is essential to the success of the trail, because there would be no way to get across a limited access freeway like Shadeland otherwise. A big benefit of this project is that the no-man's-land in between Shadeland and I-465 is now accessible by pedestrians. Thus, I can now ride my bike to Applebee's or K-Mart without risking a busy street crossing.




Soon, the trail will be extended to Ritter on the West and underneath the I-465 highway on the East. With a bit of luck, the state will continue its plans to extend to trail to Cumberland, Greenfield, and eventually all the way to Ohio. But the longest journeys start with a single step.

LEED Humour

Archinect proposes new LEED certification level:

LEED has unveiled a new level of certification, Protactinium.

In order to qualify for the standard, building designers must commit to a lifetime of celibacy and staff the building exclusively with doe-eyed orphans from third world countries. The building must be a net CO2 sink, producing more oxygen than it consumes. Any bamboo used in construction must be certified panda-free. In the event that straw bale construction is used, the straw must be free-range, sustainably harvested straw.

The building must also levitate above the ground to preserve the site for future use. Only free-range, sustainably harvested electromagnets may be used to levitate the building. The electromagnets should also give back 10% of their energy to levitate doe-eyed orphans in third world countries.