7.9M Earthquake in China

There was an earthquake in China on Monday. A 7.9 Magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, to be more specific. Unlike my comments on the midwest earthquake earlier this year, this was not a good event. It was horrendous. We get earthquakes like this a few times a year throughout the world, but a lot of times they won't hit near a populated area. This one really hurt a lot of people. Here is a BBC website showing the affected area in detail.

There are a lot of photos and videos available on the web or youtube dealing with people who had video rolling during the event. Probably the most dramatic was this series of still images on the BBC website taken by a wedding photographer. First one here shows the lovely church in the background. The next one shows the church after the earthquake.

A large earthquake can cause absolute devastation. Destroying the infrastructure of an entire region. Hospitals are closed, no power or communications, no gasoline, no passable roadways, and nowhere to sleep with a roof overhead. Shakemap below from USGS shows a very high shaking intensity.

The human impact from the earthquake included 50,000-80,000 expected casualties, 5 Million people homeless, and a complete breakdown of infrastructure. China is well positioned to absorb the collateral costs, but there will be a lot of questions to answer. The first is why so many schools collapsed. You usually expect a public building funded by the government will meet very high safety standards. That did not appear to be the case, and it may be a result of regional construction methods, improper design, or outright fraud by construction officials.

The larger public policy issues will also need to be addressed:

1. whether existing buildings in China are safe at all - this is especially important for the olympics


2. whether China's current building codes correctly address the safety requirements for public buildings and schools


3. whether China's enforced low-pay rates have encouraged third-world construction methods and outright corruption in a modern country


4. once buildings are verified to be safe, what about the infrastructure

One of the main problems with the relief effort was gauging what response is needed. China appears to be taking the kitchen sink approach, and I think that is wise. They are center place on the world stage right now, no time to ignore a major disaster like the Myanmar cyclone response. They are limiting free access to the affected area, but there seems to be enough information getting out to the other cities so that it's not really an issue. I think that by this point people have a good idea of how many people have been affected, now it is just an issue of getting relief efforts there.

The roadways have been destroyed by earth movements, landslides, and similar problems. You can't just drive in and deliver supplies, especially to the remote villages. Now there is a concern that the earthquake and aftershocks have weakened the reservoir dams in the area. I'm sure a massive flood would add a lot of misery to the region, so let us hope that the dams hold. The worst hit city also has a landslide blocking a river, so flooding is now an issue for the epicenter.

Temporary housing is a huge concern for any major disaster. How would any regional government accomodate 5,000,000 homeless citizens? The challenge is monumental. Any permanent or even short-term structures must be built to the highest standards because of the risk that after-shocks present. To underscore this fact, the Chinese government is rejecting all offers of assistance from foreign countries, except tents. Most of the towns in the area have now become tent-cities. The larger cities have increased in size as refugees from smaller cities come looking for food and shelter.

These issues of temporary housing, disease/death, and collapse of economic activity are common to most disasters. The 2008 7.9M EQ in China was similar to the 1906 San Francisco 8.0M EQ. Compare the historic photos of San Francisco with those coming from the earthquake in China.

Szichuan, 2008

San Francisco, 1906

Here are photos of some of the rescue efforts. Here is a powerpoint presentation written for the Katrina recovery effort based on previous earthquake disasters. It's well done and has some great information regarding disaster preparedness and relief efforts.

Governmental response can't save everyone after an emergency. But the government response can rescue a lot of people and facilitate a return to normal life. Successful disaster response must be planned well ahead of time. If you are concerned about disaster response in your community you should be doing two things - first make sure you have a short-term and long-term plan for your family, and second write all your local politicians and let them know how you feel, as that will help them allocate resources to what people think is important.